Every time you play a hand differently from the way you would have played it if you could see all your opponents' cards, they gain; and every time you play your hand the same way you would have played it if you could see all their cards, they lose. - David Sklansky, Fundamental Theorem of Poker
In a recent Full Tilt sit-n-go I had a hand that I'd like some opinions and help with. We were down to five players and I was in the small blind. Blinds are at 30/60 (still early) and I'm dealt [Ac Qc]. UTG raised to 120, button called and I called. The pot is T360.
The flop came [8c Jc 3h]. I checked and the raiser pushed in for T675. The button folded and it's decision time for me. To call and lose would cripple me or put me out (I copied the hand history off Full Tilt and it doesn't give stack sizes and I don't recall what I had...FT get it together!). With the blinking avatar light reaching an orgasmic rate, I called. I didn't do the pot math - I have yet to master that skill on the fly. My opponent flips over [Tc Ts] - I didn't improve and was done.
I was left wondering if I made a correct call, hence the reason for copying the hand history. I very rarely will make a call on a draw when it risks all or a considerable amount of my stack and only if I'm clear on the pot odds. This time I wasn't clear - I just couldn't do the math fast enough (Hank, I'm working on the Abdul way).
So I did a little research to confirm calculations and came up with 2 answers - one says it was an incorrect call and one implies it was correct. So I would like some feedback on this.
I had 15 outs - 9 clubs to the nut flush plus 6 outs to pairing either of my overcards. With 2 cards to come, the probability of making my hand is 33%. [ (15/47 + 32/47)*15/46 ] What did I need to make the call correct? With T1035 in the pot it was going to cost me T675 to make the call. The "winnings to cost" percentage of the pot is 40% [ 675/(1035+675) ] - so I need at least a 40% chance of making my hand for the call to be correct. I only have a 33% probability of making the hand. The call was incorrect.
However, according to the Card Player calculator, once my opponent flipped over his cards and we know what he's holding vs. my hand, I'm given a slightly better than 51% chance of making the winning hand (albeit, essentially at break-even). It's a coinflip with my hand having a slight edge, so, was the call correct after all?
I've answered that question for myself. After re-reading this post a dozen times... But I still want to hear from you guys out there.
