The Game's Afoot....

March 1, 2005 | 10:44PM  | maudie dot b - gmail d c | |

I am hooked on this game . Yet even with knowledge of the winning strategy, I manage to make mistakes (due to my visual and mathematical disability...) and have yet to have 100% perfect wins. I play it until I make a mistake and then I start over. I've managed to make it up to10 perfect rounds (time has cut my play short and 10 rounds is as far as I've gotten at one time). Minds more astute and sharp than mine should have no problem beating the bugger every time.

I first came across the game a few years ago when, at the close of one Survivor season, Probst mentioned that if you wanted to win Survivor read John Nash's book Non-Cooperative Game Theory. This intrigued me and so I began a quest to find out just what "Game Theory" was all about. I didn't get Nash's book - I was advised against it and was steered in another direction. Instead I added William Poundstone's Prisoner's Dilemma and J. D. William's The Compleat Strategyst to my library.

Prisoner's Dilemma is a deceptively simple scenario with intensely complex implications. In the early 1950's Rand Corporation launched an investigation of Game Theory because of its possible applications to global nuclear strategy. Two gentlemen, Merrill Flood and Melvin Dresher, were the minds behind developing this puzzle which goes something like this (revised for relevance):

Two prisoners, Iggy and Pauly, arrested for illegal dwarf tossing, are being held in separate cells with no means of communication with each other. They are each offered a deal and informed that the deal was made to the other. The deal is as follows:

If you confess that the two of you tossed the dwarves and the other guy denies it, we will let you go free and send him up for five years.

If you both deny the crime, then there's enough circumstantial evidence to put both of you away for one year.

If both of you confess, then you'll both get 4 year sentences.

Now, both Iggy and Pauly are rational beings (hey, this is fiction, remember?) and are able to reason out what is going to work in their best interest. Their best strategy is for both of them to keep their mouths shut and confess to nothing, thus minimizing their loss. It's amazing that this "little" puzzle has such broad implications from evolutionary to political and economic models to deciding whether you should run the yellow light when you're late to work.

It is more than a little interesting to note that the fathers of Game Theory - Emile Borel and John von Neumann (Neumann is credited with the lion share of the development of Game Theory) both were inspired by poker - Game Theory came out of the desire to discover a winning gambling strategy. In poker, I suppose it's most applicable aspect is in the art of bluffing and changing gears in play. Poker being a zero sum game (when there is no rake), bluffing is a key strategy if one is to maximize one's gains and consistently see a profit. For a far more astute discussion of Game Theory in general and it's relation to bluffing, read what Lou Krieger has to say about it. And if you're hankering for a total brain freeze, give this a read.

Understanding Game Theory isn't necessary to be a winning poker player, but it certainly can't hurt. It's a fascinating subject and can be one more tool in your poker tool chest, along with your opening hand charts, pot odds calculator, poker tracker database and player view software. You could also initiate a discussion of Game Theory at the 2-6 table at The Excalibur sometime when the table is getting stale and you want to liven things up a bit... (cough).

Speaking of Poker Tracker, Hank and Iggy have birthed their baby - The Poker Tracker Guide - I have long awaited something to help me sort through the mess my game is right now and put PT to work. Thanks guys - if it helps me then you will have a powerful testament suitable for framing and marketing.