Good night gracie , would someone just slap me up side the head?
I attempted the 5k Guarantee again on Empire this evening. I'd failed yesterday's attempt going out at #74 out of 226, so I was determined to learn from the mistakes and have a better showing. Nay, I was determined to win the damn thing.
Being the 7 pm (CST) tourney, there were entrants this time - 321. That was the bad news, but with more entrants more places paid. That was the good news. So the first goal was the money at place #40. Places 321 to 41 paid the same - nada. I had to outlast 180 other folks. Okay - can be done. I made it up the ladder to #4 once before, I could do it again.
Part One had me making another big note to self: Consider the possibilities, determine the probabilities. Simply put - look at the board and consider how it fits in your opponent's hand, then determine the probability of whether he has those cards. Example : you are under-the-gun and have KK. You dutifully raise the blinds and are called by two. The flop contains an Ace. The one on your right checks, you check and the one on your left checks. The turn is an Ace. The one on your right checks. You put out a (roughly) pot sized bet and the left guy folds. The right guy re-raises - all-in.
Now it's consideration time. We're looking at J-7-A-A on the board. What could right guy have? Uh, hmmm, your mind goes blank. All you see is AA-KK a winner in your book. Do you consider that he's risking the tourney on that all-in? No. Do you remember to consider what cards beat you? No. Do you consider your outs? No - math dunce. Ah - but, thanks to technology and a clever programmer, you can look at what he's shown us in the past. You pull up the Poker Tracker info you have on him and you see, lo and behold, 7 out of 9 hands he's shown down had an Ace in it.
So, is it probable that he has an ace and just made trips on the turn? Err, uh, hmm, dunno. KK-AA - it looks so good and I'd bust him out! Call. The river is another 7 - he flips over, what??? A-Q??? Who'da thunk it?
Fortunately, that mistake didn't do significant damage, but I lost a comfortable amount of chips on it. I repaired the damage in Level 5 when, in middle position I came in for a raise with K-Q. I got called by the Small Blind. The flop was J-6-K. He checked and I bet the pot. The turn was an Ace - not the card I wanted to see there. He bet the minimum. Nine times out of ten, or thereabouts, that is a weak move and not a trap. But, I decided to proceed cautiously and just called - that bet gave me more than enough pot odds to see the river for the straight draw.
Sure enough a lovely Ten falls. He bets about a third of the pot. I figure, at worse, we'll chop the pot so I pushed. He called. He'd gotten his third Ten on the river but it was no help.
With that I landed at the first break with a stack at greater than average and with 193 remaining in the tourney.
Part Two had two hands that were nail biters. Both potential tourney killers for me.
The first one I had A-Js in the Big Blind. One guy 2 to my left goes all-in and it's folded to me. I had him covered, but losing the hand would cripple me. This was Level 6 and he had about 10 times the big blind - not a healthy stack, but not exactly at the desperation point.
I thought he had to have a big pair AA — TT or AK. The good thing my hand had going for it was it was suited. I just had a bad feeling about that one - I didn't want to run the race. I laid it down.
The next stomach churner came with the very next hand. I'm given A-K in the Small Blind. It's folded to the guy 2 to my right who limps in. The next guy raises not quite half his stack. This one I didn't hesitate. His bet informed me he was strong, but not all-in strong - yet. I pushed all-in. I was either going to get the pot right there, or we were off to the races.
To my surprise, the limper calls all-in and the next guy folds - surrendering nearly half his stack. Hello?
The cards come out K-Q-J-T (yeehaw!) -7. He flips over KK his monster set no good and he's gone, probably none too happy with me. That one was my lucky draw, for sure - and it propelled me to sixth in chips by break #2.
Part Three had me turning into a wimp. I failed to recall in time that one key factor that got me to 4th in the previous tourney was not shying away from coin-flips. Not remembering that cost me the final table, at least.
Again, I received AK in the Small Blind. All fold to me and I raised. The Big Blind - who is a bigger stack than me, re-raises. One other calls and so do I. A huge mistake. You don't call with A-K in your hand. You either fold it if you think you're beat or you raise it. You do not call (with the one exception of slow-playing the nuts).
The flop is 4-Q-T. The guy in front of us bets the minimum. I. Folded. Big Blind raises and the other guy calls. The river is a K. Ouch. Big Blind pushes all-in and the other guy folds. Big Blind shows A-Q.
That hand made my stack vulnerable. We were hand for hand - 10 away from the money. I could have folded my way there. But I didn't. I played A-2s for a steal and it was called. The flop was checked and the turn gave me the nut flush draw. Foolishly, I ended all-in and staring down the barrel of a set of Tens aimed squarely at my forehead and down I went - #48.
