Update below
I've been busy the last three and a half days with a visit from my brother and nephew. They have worn me out as we have been everywhere and anywhere you can go around here and OKC. So, while they are at the game today - OU Sooners v. Oregon Ducks - I have a little time to catch up.
I discovered my 28 year old nephew plays some poker and has been to Vegas once to visit a friend who lives there and played in a tournament. He's read some of Sklansky... He was backseat driving the other night when I logged on and got in a $10 Sit-n-Go and, well, let's just say he owes me $11! I think I've thoroughly corrupted him - he said he may open a Party Poker account when he gets back home. I've got to load him up with some reading material and the best advice his Auntie can give - he likes to play K-T - says he'll always see a flop with it. I want to do my best to see that the likes of some of the sharks swimming at Party don't eat him alive!
Recently I attempted a Party Poker Million IV multi-table satellite. The top six places received entry into the big qualifier for a chance at a prize package for the cruise and entry into the tournament. I managed to get to the last two tables in fairly decent shape. We were down to 13 and I had about 8k in chips - not rosy-cheeked and brimming with health, but certainly not a death's door. I was, however, starting to feel a little pressure - I wanted a little more fuel to get me to the final table in order to arrive at the final table and be able to zip by the 18-wheelers in my way.
I was under-the-gun with a pair of deuces in the pocket. I initially thought of mucking, but then I changed my mind - reasoning this may be a chance to top off the tank for the final table appearance. So I raised and received one caller - not what I wanted - who was short-stacked (around 2.8k if I remember correctly). The flop came Q-7-7, a terrible flop. Honestly, I don't know what I expected with those little quackers in my hand - any flop would have been a terrible flop except one with a two or two. I muffed it from here on attempting to sandbag her and then running to the hills when she pushed in. This crippled me and I was out soon after at 13th.
In an e-mail from a long-time pal, fellow poker-nut and our resident home-game Stat King, I got the following helpful commentary on the hand and playing deuces. With his permission I'm sharing it because it covers some important things that need to be at the fore-front of one's thinking at "decision-making time."
As for the specifics of Lame Ducks Late in the Tournament - It's sort of like going to the dance with someone who has a great personality but a face that only a mother would love. You might admire and respect them but you wouldn't want to open your eyes in the morning with them in front of you.
Specifically, everything I've seen on tournament strategy by Caro, Wong, Sklansky and Mason says, " When low, play slow ". Insurance is fine when you can afford the premium.
The other person betting back low could've been a case of slow playing the 7's. Say, she started with an A7o. She would've been justified, barely, to call your raise. Now comes the flop with her Set of 7's made and all she's got to make sure of is that you didn't raise on the strength of Wired Queens, in which case she mucks. So she casts her bread on the water - but not the whole loaf - just in case. Covering herself she put the question to you and when you didn't push in she assumed that the Queen didn't help. Comes the Ace and now there's two overcards to scare you with so when you checked you showed weakness and she brings the hammer down. You could've very easily been looking at 7's full of Aces at the River.
Or, since she was short-stacked herself, she probably underbet the pot to try and stay in cheap rather than as an attempt to trap you. Two Pair is the winning hand only 52% of the time in Draw Poker and I'll bet even less often in HE. If you were betting more than 2% of your total stack on the 7's Up you were paying too many pennies for the whistle.
Moral of the Story : Survive. Survive. Survive. There is no playing strategy for 'felt only' in front of you.
The time to take shots is when you're the big pile and your chips have leverage. Not at the start of the tournament (usually) and not at the short-stacked end.
What do you call a Wired Pair of Kings ? Bullet Magnets.
So there's no sure thing but if it looks like a duck, and it quacks like a duck and the minimum for raising UtG with a Pair is KK ... I say, DUCK !!!
Update: And then there were the ducks that cracked my QQ by calling my all-in and getting the third mother-plucker on the river and putting me out at #22 (damn - #22 - damn ducks) out of 110 in a $10+$1 Euro Open satellite.
